Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4775 LANDED 12:40 PM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4775 · LGA → GRR

took off 10:58 AM ET · landed 12:40 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

GRR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4775 · LGA → GRR

Odds over time