YX 4784 · ILM → DCA

took off 10:58 AM ET · landed 11:49 AM ET (scheduled 10:32 AM ET → 12:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ 10am departures from ILM are usually not late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.98 in

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4784 · ILM → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?