Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4785 IN THE AIR (OFF 9:10 PM ET, ETA 11:00 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

YX 4785 · MIA → OKC

took off 9:10 PM ET · expected to land 11:00 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OKC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4785 · MIA → OKC

Odds over time