Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 5624 · DCA → JFK
departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 12:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 17%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.