Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5640
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 5640 · JFK → ORD
departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.