Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5640
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 5640 · JFK → ORD
departs 7:35 PM ET · arrives 9:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at JFK that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.17 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.