YX 5699 · DCA → JFK

took off 11:19 AM ET · landed 12:00 PM ET (scheduled 10:55 AM ET → 12:15 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5699 · DCA → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?