Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5749
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5749 · LGA → DCA
departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 1:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 19%
Thu 10/8 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DCA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.