Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5791 · LGA → JAX
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 8:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.