Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5828
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 5828 · CLT → LGA
departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
4pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.22 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.