YX 5857 · BNA → DCA

departs 1:02 PM CT · arrives 4:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.03 in

DCA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5857 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?