Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5858 · BOS → ORF
departs 2:05 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ORF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.