Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5858 · BOS → ORF
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
3pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at BOS that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.