Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 5858 · ORF → BOS
departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 6:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.