Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5858 · ORF → BOS
departs 5:49 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.38 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.