Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5873 LANDED 6:52 AM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 5873 · DCA → LGA

took off 6:14 AM ET · landed 6:52 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 16h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5873 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time