AA 1189 · DCA → ORD

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.09 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1189 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?