AA 1409 · ORD → CLT

departs 1:23 PM CT · arrives 4:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ CLT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1409 · ORD → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?