AA 1423 · DCA → PWM

departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at PWM that day

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.14 in

PWM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1423 · DCA → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?