AA 1457 · POP → MIA

departs 1:15 PM AST · arrives 3:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at POP

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

POP (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MIA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1457 · POP → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?