Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1488 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 1488 · CMW → MIA

departs 2:44 PM CDT · arrives 3:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMW

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CMW (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MIA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1488 · CMW → MIA

Odds over time