AA 1531 · BWI → CLT

departs 1:52 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CLT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.18 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1531 · BWI → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?