AA 1539 · LAS → MIA

departs 10:25 PM PT · arrives 6:18 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1539 · LAS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?