Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1557 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1557 · DCA → BOS

departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 4:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.52 in

BOS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1557 · DCA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?