Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1576 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1576 · LGA → MIA

departs 7:29 PM ET · arrives 10:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.11 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1576 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?