Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1619 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1619 · BWI → MIA

departs 6:39 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.42 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1619 · BWI → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?