Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1622 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1622 · CLT → BWI

departs 4:15 PM ET · arrives 5:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

BWI (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1622 · CLT → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?