Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1623 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1623 · DFW → DCA

departs 7:02 AM CT · arrives 10:59 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DCA that day

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1623 · DFW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?