AA 1711 · CLT → PHX

departs 2:43 PM ET · arrives 4:13 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1711 · CLT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?