AA 1757 · CLT → RIC

took off 4:20 PM ET · expected to land 5:04 PM ET (scheduled 4:10 PM ET → 5:28 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

RIC (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.81 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1757 · CLT → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?