Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1809 · AVP → CLT

departs 5:27 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ AVP usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AVP (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1809 · AVP → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?