AA 1946 · CLT → SYR

took off 5:39 PM ET · expected to land 6:54 PM ET (scheduled 5:06 PM ET → 7:13 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SYR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at CLT that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

SYR (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1946 · CLT → SYR

Odds over time

How late will it get to SYR?