Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1982 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AA 1982 · JAX → DCA

departs 7:09 PM ET · arrives 9:06 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.33 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1982 · JAX → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?