Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2001 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2001 · CLT → JAX

departs 11:26 AM ET · arrives 12:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ JAX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.39 in

JAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2001 · CLT → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?