Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2025 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AA 2025 · LAS → MIA

departs 11:35 PM PT · arrives 7:40 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2025 · LAS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?