Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2147 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2147 · MCO → MIA

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2147 · MCO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?