Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2415 · RIC → CLT

departs 9:07 AM ET · arrives 10:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ 9am departures from RIC are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.03 in

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2415 · RIC → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?