Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2504 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2504 · PHL → SAV

departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SAV more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAV?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAV that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SAV usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.09 in

SAV (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2504 · PHL → SAV

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAV?