AA 2581 · MKE → DFW

departs 12:29 PM CT · arrives 3:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2581 · MKE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?