Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AA 2581 · SJU → MIA

departs 4:38 PM AT · arrives 7:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from SJU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SJU (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2581 · SJU → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?