AA 2630 · PHL → SLC

departs 7:36 PM ET · arrives 10:33 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SLC?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SLC

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.18 in

SLC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2630 · PHL → SLC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SLC?