Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2641 LANDED 4:54 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 2641 · PVD → DCA

took off 3:43 PM ET · landed 4:54 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PVD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2641 · PVD → DCA

Odds over time