AA 2726 · HOG → MIA

departs 3:05 PM CDT · arrives 4:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HOG

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

HOG (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2726 · HOG → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?