Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2730 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2730 · TYS → MIA

departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 8:12 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TYS that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip1.33 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2730 · TYS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?