Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2834 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2834 · TPA → ORD

departs 2:04 PM ET · arrives 4:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2834 · TPA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?