AA 2859 · DEN → CLT

departs 12:09 PM MT · arrives 5:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ CLT usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2859 · DEN → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?