Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2885 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2885 · DFW → MSY

departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 11:30 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

MSY (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2885 · DFW → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?