Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2909 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2909 · VPS → CLT

departs 4:53 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.2 in of rain forecast at VPS that day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ VPS usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

VPS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.16 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2909 · VPS → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?