Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2939 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2939 · MIA → RIC

departs 3:16 PM ET · arrives 5:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MIA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2939 · MIA → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?