Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2939 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2939 · RIC → MIA

departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ RIC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.03 in

MIA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2939 · RIC → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?